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2007—2021年上海莘庄太阳最大入射辐射变化特征和环流背景

刘丽 赵春江 祝从文 张书萍

刘丽,赵春江,祝从文,张书萍. 2023. 2007—2021年上海莘庄太阳最大入射辐射变化特征和环流背景. 气象学报,81(6):1-13 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20230031
引用本文: 刘丽,赵春江,祝从文,张书萍. 2023. 2007—2021年上海莘庄太阳最大入射辐射变化特征和环流背景. 气象学报,81(6):1-13 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20230031
Liu Li, Zhao Chunjiang, Zhu Congwen, Zhang Shuping. 2023. Variation of maximum solar radiation in Shanghai Xinzhuang during 2007—2021 and associated circulation backgrounds. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 81(6):1-13 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20230031
Citation: Liu Li, Zhao Chunjiang, Zhu Congwen, Zhang Shuping. 2023. Variation of maximum solar radiation in Shanghai Xinzhuang during 2007—2021 and associated circulation backgrounds. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 81(6):1-13 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20230031

2007—2021年上海莘庄太阳最大入射辐射变化特征和环流背景

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20230031
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(41830969、U2242205)。
详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘丽,主要从事太阳辐射次季节至季节变化机理研究。E-mail:dl1424909687@163.com

    通讯作者:

    祝从文,主要从事东亚季风次季节至季节预测机理研究。E-mail:zhucw@cma.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P466

Variation of maximum solar radiation in Shanghai Xinzhuang during 2007—2021 and associated circulation backgrounds

  • 摘要: 利用2007—2021年上海莘庄太阳能辐射仪(型号:EKO-MS6020)接收到的逐月最大太阳辐射(MSR)资料,以水平0°角辐射仪观测值为参考,分析了0°—25°不同仰角观测的MSR差异,评估了台站观测、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)大气再分析(ERA5)资料与太阳能辐射仪观测辐射的差别。在此基础上,讨论了MSR与天气要素的关系及发生的环流背景和天气尺度演变特征。结果显示,上海莘庄的MSR季节波动范围为800—1300 W/m2,峰值和谷值分别出现在5月和12月。观测的最大MSR值接近太阳常数,年际变化幅度约200 W/m2。相对于0°角观测,当太阳能板倾角为5°—20°时,平均每个月MSR可多获得50—250 W/m2辐射,最佳倾角为20°。ERA5相对于观测MSR存在明显低估,年平均低估约200 W/m2。虽然两者的季节变化相关系数高达0.88,但是在空间和时间上存在显著差异,年际变化相关并不显著。针对与MSR时间相差小于3 d的大气环流背景合成,春、夏、秋、冬四季的环流结构存在差异,但总体来看,偏北风加强、云量偏少、温度偏高的天气过程有利于MSR出现。

     

  • 图 1  上海莘庄太阳能辐射仪观测示意 (图中左侧辐射仪为水平0°倾角观测,右侧为向南15°倾角辐射观测)

    Figure 1.  Schematic diagram of solar radiometer observation at Xinzhuang of Shanghai (the left and right radiometers indicate 0° and 15° inclination observations,respectively)

    图 2  莘庄不同倾角观测到的月MSR季节变化特征 (红色折线为0°倾角方差变化)

    Figure 2.  Seasonal variation of monthly MSR observations at different inclination at Xinzhuang (red line is variance change based on observations at zero-degree inclination)

    图 3  不同倾角与0°角MSR差异的多年平均距平值 (a) 和不同倾角同时观测年份距平值 (b) (红线代表太阳赤角季节变化)

    Figure 3.  Differences in MSR between observations at various inclination angles and 0° inclination angles (a. multi-year average MSR,b. simultaneous observations of MSR;the red line indicates seasonal cycle of the solar declination)

    图 4  2011—2021年ERA5与莘庄观测MSR原始值 (a) 和距平值 (b) 比较 (红线为线性拟合线)

    Figure 4.  Scatter plot of MSR between ERA5 and observations at Xinzhuang during 2011—2021 for original values (a) and anomalies (b)(the red line represent the linear fitting)

    图 5  ERA5与莘庄观测MSR距平相关系数的空间分布

    Figure 5.  Spatial distribution of correlation coefficient between MSR extracted from ERA5 and observations at Xinzhuang

    图 6  2011—2021年ERA5与莘庄观测的MSR逐月年际变率 (a) 和逐月年际差异 (b) (红线为平均差异)

    Figure 6.  Interannual variabilities of monthly MSR from ERA5 and observations at Xinzhuang (a) and their differences (b) during 2011—2021 (the multi-year averaged difference)

    图 7  ERA5与莘庄观测MSR数值 (a) 和时间 (b) 误差空间分布

    Figure 7.  Spatial distributions of MSR value errors (a) and phase errors (b) between ERA5 and observations at Xinzhuang

    图 8  2016—2021年上海莘庄与宝山气象站 (a、c) 和ERA5 (b、d) 的MSR和距平散点

    Figure 8.  Scatter plots of MSR and its anomalies between observations at Xinzhuang and Baoshan of Shanghai (a,c) and the counterparts of ERA5 (b,d) during 2016—2021

    图 9  ERA5的MSR与莘庄观测时间相差小于3 d的环流合成场 (色阶代表总云量 (×10);等值线代表850 hPa温度,单位:℃;矢量箭头为850 hPa风场;a. 春,b. 夏,c. 秋,d. 冬)

    Figure 9.  Composite circulation from ERA5 corresponding to MSR time difference within 3 d at Xinzhuang (shadings indicate total cloud cover (×10);contours indicate air temperature at 850 hPa,unit:℃;vectors show winds at 850 hPa;a. Spring,b. Summer,c. Autumn,d. Winter)

    图 10  图9,但为距平场

    Figure 10.  Same as Fig. 9 but for anomalies

    图 11  图9,但为前后2 d环流距平场演变特征 (红线为0℃等值线,实线为正,虚线为负,间隔为1;i为超前或滞后天数,单位:d)

    Figure 11.  Same as Fig. 9 but for two-day lead-lag circulation anomalies (the red line is 0℃ contour, the solid line is positive, the dashed line is negative, interval is 1,unit:d)

    表  1  不同倾角观测的季节和年平均MSR (单位:W/m2

    Table  1.   Seasonal and annual mean values of MSR for observations with different inclination (unit:W/m2

    倾角(°)春季夏季秋季冬季年平均
    01117.791182.151101.75776.421024.06
    51176.921274.751188.13851.431099.92
    101152.501183.221163.02846.601066.80
    151185.521170.601152.43930.671102.35
    201194.471214.231200.23975.121131.90
    251106.171106.511142.95934.021064.98
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  不同倾角与0°角辐射差及全年累计辐射差 (单位:W/m2

    Table  2.   Differences between observations at various inclination angles and 0° in same observation years andaccumulated annual differences (unit:W/m2

    时间 10° 15° 20° 25°
    1月 139.22 101.87 161.87 169.67 121.53
    2月 81.54 73.49 182.09 126.39 147.15
    3月 39.91 34.21 101.16 98.46 62.98
    4月 124.49 28.24 51.44 54.09 −0.38
    5月 12.99 41.69 50.59 77.49 −97.45
    6月 125.98 −7.42 −55.27 −14.32 −120.29
    7月 41.18 −51.67 −5.32 60.48 −97.39
    8月 110.63 62.28 25.93 50.08 −9.23
    9月 54.66 51.36 28.61 83.21 57.58
    10月 93.87 70.17 97.52 162.17 75.28
    11月 53.60 8.20 151.90 200.85 172.07
    12月 32.23 100.48 148.98 225.58 179.21
    总计 910.30 512.90 939.50 1294.15 491.06
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  ERA5与莘庄观测得到MSR出现时间

    Table  3.   Comparison of MSR occurrence dates between ERA5 and observations at Xinzhuang

    时间1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月
    2011年31(21)24(12)30(31)*28(12)13(30)3(30)3(10)2(3)*3(25)8(20)11(4)11(27)
    2012年25(30)19(26)31(31)*26(18)28(22)13(2)30(28)*1(24)19(1)1(3)*4(2)*31(11)
    2013年28(17)24(16)31(2)26(21)21(28)3(5)*11(19)8(3)16(25)12(9)*7(17)2(28)
    2014年22(14)21(4)22(23)*15(8)28(24)14(10)22(9)4(13)11(21)15(9)3(15)5(7)*
    2015年23(20)*19(15)25(28)*26(9)21(26)6(17)29(9)6(7)*3(5)*11(14)*2(6)17(8)
    2016年25(26)*27(18)28(24)30(18)18(19)*14(2)25(4)14(8)3(4)*2(9)3(1)*7(28)
    2017年26(30)28(7)27(28)*28(27)*27(20)3(11)27(5)3(22)13(1)7(9)*1(4)*5(9)
    2018年30(26)26(17)28(29)*17(22)23(8)1(17)14(2)5(27)5(25)1(4)*9(2)17(14)*
    2019年24(16)24(26)*31(22)15(16)*21(20)*3(11)29(1)17(24)18(7)10(2)11(6)3(23)
    2020年31(30)*22(17)20(23)*28(20)12(22)30(8)22(23)*15(22)3(13)13(5)8(4)31(1)
    2021年29(12)21(22)*28(26)*29(21)5(22)6(16)15(18)*9(4)18(11)3(9)8(2)2(23)
     注:*表示两种数据时间相差在3 d内个例。
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2023-02-28
  • 修回日期:  2023-07-25
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-07-26

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