河南“21.7”极端暴雨的研究进展

姚秀萍; 李若莹

doi:10.11676/qxxb2023.20230038

河南“21.7”极端暴雨的研究进展

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20230038

1.
中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京 100081
2.
中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（42275013）、灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题（2021LASW-B17）、国家自然科学基金项目（42030611、42175008）。

详细信息

作者简介:
姚秀萍，主要从事暴雨等灾害性天气的中尺度气象学研究。Email：yaoxp@cma.gov.cn

中图分类号: P458.1⁺21.1
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-03-10
- 录用日期: 2023-11-06
- 修回日期: 2023-07-12
- 网络出版日期: 2023-07-14

Review of studies on the “21.7” extreme rainstorm in Henan

1.
China Meteorological Administration Training Centre，Beijing 100081，China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather，Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences，Beijing 100081，China

摘要

摘要: 2021年7月17—22日，河南省发生了一次造成严重人员伤亡和财产损失的极端暴雨事件，被称为“21.7”极端暴雨。在“21.7”极端暴雨发生不到2 a的时间里，“21.7”极端暴雨相关的研究取得了诸多成果，所发表的论文达百篇。主要从降水的特征、影响天气系统、发生和发展机制、下垫面效应、气候变暖增幅效应和数值模式预报等方面对 “21.7”极端暴雨的研究进展进行了梳理和总结，并与“75.8”特大暴雨的研究成果进行对比。结果表明，由于观测技术的发展和研究方法的改进，“21.7”极端暴雨的研究结果呈现了比“75.8”特大暴雨研究更精细的降水和中小尺度系统特征，尤其是微物理过程，其中中尺度对流系统与中尺度对流涡旋耦合增强的动力学过程，以及霰粒子的融化促进各尺度粒子的同步增长的微物理过程是“21.7”极端暴雨过程的重要发现；“21.7”极端暴雨体现了更明显的热带和海洋的影响，可能导致“21.7”极端暴雨过程出现更极端的小时雨量；然而，城市化对极端暴雨的影响较为复杂，其与气候变暖的信号难以区分，增大了“21.7”极端暴雨机理研究的不确定性。最后，对未来研究方向进行了展望。
- "21.7"极端暴雨 /
- 研究进展 /
- 机制 /
- 数值模式 /
- "75.8"特大暴雨
Abstract: From 17 to 22 July 2021, an extremely heavy rainstorm occurred in Henan province, China, causing severe casualties and property damages. This rainstorm is named as "21.7" extreme rainstorm. The "21.7" extreme rainstorm has attracted great attention of many scholars, and significant progress was made with nearly 100 studies of this flood in less than two years. The present study reviews recent research progresses in characteristics of the "21.7" extreme rainstorm, including influencing weather systems and their mechanisms, the effects of underlying surface and climate warming and numerical forecast, etc. These progresses are compared with research progresses of the "75.8" heavy rainstorm. Results indicate that compared with the "75.8" heavy rainstorm, finer characteristics of rainfall and mesoscale and microscale systems in the "21.7" extreme rainstorm have been revealed due to the development of observation technology and the improvement of research methods, particularly in terms of microphysical processes. Among these findings, the dynamic process of coupling enhancement between mesoscale convective system and mesoscale convective vortex and the microphysical process of simultaneous growth of various scale particles promoted by melting of hail particles in the "21.7" extreme rainfall process are important findings. The "21.7" extreme rainstorm was more strongly influenced by tropical and oceanic factors. With global warming, the "21.7" extreme rainstorm showed a more pronounced response to tropical atmospheric circulation and ocean than the "75.8" heavy rainstorm, which may result in more extreme hourly rainfall during the "21.7" extreme rainstorm. However, urban impact on the "21.7" extreme rainstorm is complex. It is challenging to distinguish urban impact from global warming signals, which increases the uncertainty regarding the mechanism of the "21.7" extreme rainstorm. Finally, directions of future research are discussed.
- "21.7" extreme rainstorm /
- Research progress /
- Mechanism of rainstorm /
- Numerical model /
- "75.8" heavy rainstorm

HTML全文

图 1 2021年7月17日08时—23日08时（a） 4个主要站点随时间演变（北京时，下同）和（b）同时段6日累计降水量的水平分布（梁旭东等，2022）

Figure 1. （a） Temporal variations of hourly rainfall averaged over the rain gauge stations in Henan province，and hourly rainfall at four selected stations，（b） distribution of accumulated rainfall from 08:00 BT 17 July to 08:00 BT 23 July 2021

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图 2 2021年7月17日08时—23日08时（a） 200 hPa和（b） 500 hPa上6 d平均的位势高度场分布（等值线，单位：gpm）及其相对气候态的标准化异常（色阶）（字母“H”“L”分别表示高、低压中心，黑色虚线表示槽线，图2b中的灰色阴影表示超过5 km地形）（梁旭东等，2022）

Figure 2. Distributions of 6 d averaged geopotential height from 08:00 BT 17 to 08:00 BT 23 July 2021 （contours，unit：gpm）and their standardized anomalies （shadings）（a. 200 hPa，b. 500 hPa；letters “H” and “L” denote High and Low，respectively；black dashed curves represent trough axes；gray shadings denote terrain height greater than 5 km in Fig. 2b）

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图 3 “21.7”极端暴雨期间不同尺度天气系统相互作用示意（Yin J F，et al，2022a）

Figure 3. Schematic diagram of interaction between multiple-scale weather systems（Yin J F， et al，2022a）

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图 4 向东倾斜的中尺度涡旋引发“21.7”极端暴雨的机制示意（Zhang，et al，2022）

Figure 4. Schematic diagram showing how the eastward-sloping MCV gave rise to “21.7” extremely torrential rainfall

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图 5 （a） 2021年7月19—21日和（b）气候态在850 hPa上垂直涡度的水平分布（蓝色和橙色曲线分别为2021年7月和气候态天气尺度波列的传播路径）（Huang S H，et al，2022）

Figure 5. Synoptic-scale wave train represented by 850 hPa relative vorticity （a） during 19–21 July 2021 and （b） in climatology （blue curve represents the propagating pathway of the synoptic-scale wave train in July 2021 and orange curve represents the climatological propagating pathway）（Huang S H，et al，2022）

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