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IPCC AR6报告关于不同类型干旱变化研究的新进展与启示

王晨鹏 黄萌田 翟盘茂

王晨鹏,黄萌田,翟盘茂. 2022. IPCC AR6报告关于不同类型干旱变化研究的新进展与启示. 气象学报,80(1):1-8 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.017
引用本文: 王晨鹏,黄萌田,翟盘茂. 2022. IPCC AR6报告关于不同类型干旱变化研究的新进展与启示. 气象学报,80(1):1-8 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.017

IPCC AR6报告关于不同类型干旱变化研究的新进展与启示

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.017
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507700)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    王晨鹏,主要从事极端干旱事件研究。E-mail:camswcp@126.com

    通讯作者:

    翟盘茂,主要从事极端天气气候事件研究。E-mail:pmzhai@cma.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P467

  • 摘要: 本文基于IPCC第一工作组(WGI)第六次评估报告(AR6),从干旱的定义和类型、干旱的驱动因素、监测到的干旱变化、干旱的归因以及预估5个方面进行了分析和总结。IPCC评估指出:(1)在全球变暖的背景下,监测到的气象和农业干旱的变化在全球尺度上并不显著,但干旱频发区域呈现不同程度的增加趋势。这种增加的趋势表明,人为气候变化在加剧区域干旱中的作用不容忽视。在气象干旱的变化趋势归因中,对人类活动影响的认识信度仍然不高;(2)在农业干旱和生态干旱方面,大部分区域能够归因于人类活动引起的变化(中等-高信度;在水文干旱变化中,除人为引起的气候变化外,水资源管理和土地利用也是局地影响的重要因素(中等信度)。(3)在未来的干旱预估中,全球更多的区域将经历更严重更频繁的干旱事件,农业和生态干旱也将随着温升水平的增加而变得频繁和强烈。(4)在对不同类型干旱的变化评估中,重点涉及了大气蒸发需求(AED)这一关键变量。AED的变化不仅是对气候变暖的直接响应,而且作为干旱变化的驱动因子,影响植被的生理过程,同时AED的变化也是对蒸散发变化的一种反馈。在未来气候变化不断加剧背景下,不同类型的干旱间的相互作用将变得更为复杂。未来中国干旱的研究和业务应深入探究不同类型干旱变化中的联系;基于多元数据和多重证据的支撑,加强跨学科研究以及干旱变化与局地人类活动影响和植被生态反馈的综合研究。

     

  • 图  2  人为影响下干旱的发展过程及主要驱动因素

    Figure  2.  The development process and main driving factors of droughts under anthropogenic influence

    表  1  干旱类型相关概念

    Table  1.   Concept table related to drought types

    干旱类型概念代表干旱指数
    气象干旱一个地区在一段时间内由于降水严重不足导致SPI、CDD
    农业干旱通常指土壤湿度不断下降,从而导致农作物歉收SMA、SSMI
    生态干旱与植物的水分胁迫有关,进而导致树木死亡NDVI、VCI
    水文干旱由水资源短缺,如河流、湖泊、地下水短缺等导致SGI、SRI
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-09-06
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