极地海冰快速变化及机制研究进展和挑战

The progress and challenges in the study of rapid polar sea ice changes and mechanisms behind these changes

  • 摘要: 极地海冰在地球系统中扮演着至关重要的角色,也是气候环境变化的指示器和放大器。在全球变暖背景下,过去46年间,北极海冰持续减少,而南极海冰则先经历了增加,随后出现了骤减。目前,两极海冰都相继进入新的低值“状态”。极地海冰的变化与人类活动引起的全球变暖和气候内部变率有关。在过去40多年中,结合现场观测、卫星遥感反演、再分析资料和数值试验,科学家在极地海冰变化及可能机理方面取得了丰硕的研究成果。然而,对影响其快速变化的确切驱动因素及其各自的贡献尚不完全清楚。文中总结了近几十年观测的北极和南极海冰变化特征和未来变化预估,较为系统地从极区大气和海洋相互作用及反馈过程、中高纬度主要气候模态、以及热带-极地遥相关等方面,阐述了北极和南极海冰快速变化机制的进展和挑战,并概述了极地海冰变化对区域和全球气候的可能影响。

     

    Abstract: Polar sea ice is essential to the Earth system, functioning both as an indicator and an amplifier of climatic and environmental changes. In the context of global warming, Arctic sea ice has been declining during the past 46 years, yet Antarctic sea ice increased first before it significantly declined. Currently, sea ice in the two polar regions has reached unprecedented low levels. Changes in polar sea ice are associated with anthropogenic global warming and internal climate variabilities. Over the past four decades, researchers have obtained abundant findings about polar sea ice changes and potential processes by integrating field observations, satellite remote sensing, reanalysis data, and numerical simulations. Nonetheless, various factors responsible for the rapid changes in sea ice and their individual contributions remain inadequately comprehended. This study summarizes the characteristics of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes observed in recent decades and projections of future changes. It systematically elucidates the progress and challenges in the study of rapid changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice and mechanisms behind these changes from perspectives of interaction and feedback processes between the polar atmosphere and ocean, principal climate modes in the mid- and high-latitudes, and tropical-polar teleconnections, and outlines possible impacts of polar sea ice changes on both regional and global climate.

     

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