Abstract:
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is a fundamental technology for weather forecasting, as well as disaster prevention and mitigation. The research and operational application of NWP have always been highly valued in China, leading to great achievements and broad international influences in theories, methods and operational system development. This paper first summarizes the scientific and technological progresses of NWP in China, and then focuses on current status and recent progresses of two domestically developed NWP systems, i.e., GRAPES (Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) and YHGSM (YinHe Global Spectral Model). GRAPES contains deterministic and ensemble forecasting systems with autonomous technology ranging from regional 3-10 km to global 12-50 km resolutions. New breakthroughs have been made in the dynamic core, four-dimensional variational assimilation and satellite data assimilation, etc. The GRAPES system is also extended to include atmospheric chemistry model, typhoon numerical model and ocean wave model. YHGSM continues to follow the development route of spectral models with breaking through techniques such as the dry-mass conserved spectral dynamical core, ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation, coupled ocean-land-atmosphere ensemble forecast, and a numerical forecast system has been established with high resolution global medium-term and monthly extension numerical forecast as its core. The NWP system independently developed by the army and the government is the result of long-term adherence to the established science and technology direction and close combination of academic research and operational development.