数值天气预报资料同化的发展与展望

Development and Prospects of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

  • 摘要: 资料同化为数值天气预报提供必不可少的初值。在过去百年发展历程中,资料同化由三维变分、四维变分方法发展到使用集合概率预报的集合Kalman滤波,再到结合二者优势的混合集合-变分同化方法,以及含有动力约束和模式平衡性的先进同化理论。在同化常规观测的基础上,极轨和静止卫星测量的辐射亮温、全球导航卫星系统无线电掩星探测资料的同化显著改进了全球数值天气预报,而雷达探测的经向风和反射率的同化有效改进了区域数值天气预报。同时,指导获得最大预报正影响观测区域的目标观测技术持续发展,以改进高影响天气事件的数值预报。基于资料同化理论和方法的发展,中国的资料同化业务系统也得到了长足进步,建立了先进的资料同化业务系统,5天全球天气预报水平在过去10年提升了约15%。在回顾过去百年资料同化发展历程的基础上,进一步讨论了未来资料同化方法和业务系统框架的发展、新型观测资料的使用以及同化与人工智能的结合等研究方向。

     

    Abstract: For numerical weather prediction (NWP), data assimilation combines short-term forecasts and various atmospheric observations to achieve optimal initial conditions used for subsequent weather forecasts. With the rapid advancements in numerical models and observing systems, data assimilation has evolved significantly. Modern methods now account for uncertainties across different spatial and temporal scales, incorporate diverse observation error statistics, and enforce dynamical constraints and model balances. Meanwhile, observations from various platforms, such as ground-based, aircraft, and satellite, have been assimilated. These include data from polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites, radar-derived radial winds and reflectivity, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultations, and more. To further utilizing the improved observing systems and data assimilation for high-impact weather predictions, target observation strategies have been developed to identify regions where additional observations yield the greatest prediction improvements. Based on the advancements of data assimilation, China’s operational systems have also made significant progress, establishing advanced operational data assimilation systems. Over the past decade, the forecast skill of 5-day global weather prediction has improved by approximately 15%. The article reviews a century of development in data assimilation, and discusses future directions, including advanced methods, operational system frameworks, integration of novel observations, and the synergy between data assimilation and artificial intelligence.

     

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