基于AI天气模型驱动的台风预报系统(AI-TRANS)性能评估

Evaluation of a typhoon forecasting system based on AI weather model (AI-TRANS)

  • 摘要: 利用人工智能技术推动科学研究(AI for Science)正在改变传统科学研究的范式,AI天气模型(简称AI模型)已经实现业务化应用。尽管AI模型在台风路径预报方面已取得显著进步,但在捕捉台风内部复杂物理过程,以及预报台风强度变化,尤其是台风快速加强(RI)及内部结构演变方面,仍存在明显局限。主要是AI模型在分辨台风强度和精细结构时,缺乏足够的分辨率支撑。为了突破这一瓶颈,更精准地预报台风强度和结构演变,采用AI模型驱动区域数值模式成为有效的解决途径。基于这一技术路线,中国气象科学研究院联合国家气象中心研发了基于AI模型驱动的台风预报系统(AI-driven Typhoon Rapid Analysis and Forecasting System,AI-TRANS)。利用2024年台风预报业务数据,针对AI-TRANS与其他6个业务模式开展了对比检验工作。结果表明:在台风路径预报方面,AI-TRANS与现有业务模式表现基本持平;而在台风强度和结构预报上则表现出明显优势。该系统集成了AI模型与中尺度数值模式的优点,通过优化AI模型的路径预报稳定性,显著提高了台风登陆预报的准确率;同时,通过AI模型驱动区域模式技术,有效提升了对台风快速加强、极值强度及精细结构等关键指标的预报效果。以2024年影响中国最严重的台风“格美”和“摩羯”为例,AI-TRANS系统成功预报了“格美”在台湾岛东侧路径打转、RI现象及双眼墙结构,同时精准捕捉到台风“摩羯”进入中国南海后发生的RI、双眼墙形成及眼墙置换过程。这是在台风实时预报中模式第一次成功预报出台风双眼墙结构及眼墙置换过程,充分证明了AI-TRANS系统在提升台风强度预报准确性和防灾减灾工作中的关键支撑作用。

     

    Abstract: The application of artificial intelligence in scientific research (AI for Science) is transforming the traditional scientific research paradigm, and AI weather models have already been deployed in operational applications. Despite significant progress in typhoon track forecasting, AI weather models still exhibit limitations in capturing complex physical processes within typhoons and predicting changes in typhoon intensity, especially the rapid intensification (RI) of typhoons and the evolution of typhoon internal structures. This is mainly because AI weather models lack sufficient resolution support for determining typhoon intensity and fine structure. The use of AI weather model-driven regional model technology can overcome this bottleneck, enabling more accurate forecast of typhoon intensity and structural evolution. To this end, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and the National Meteorological Center have jointly developed the AI-driven Typhoon Rapid Analysis and Forecasting System (AI-TRANS) based on the technical route mentioned above. The forecast results of AI-TRANS are compared with forecasts of six other operational models using typhoon forecast data from 2024. The results show that the performance of AI-TRANS is basically the same as that of the existing operational models in typhoon track forecasting. The prediction of typhoon intensity and structure shows obvious advantages. The system integrates the advantages of the AI weather model and numerical models, and significantly improves the accuracy of typhoon landfall forecast by improving the track forecast stability of the AI weather model. At the same time, the AI weather model-driven regional model technology has effectively improved the forecasting effect of key indicators such as typhoon RI, lifetime maximum intensity and fine structure. Taking the severe typhoons Gaemi and Yagi in 2024 as examples, the AI-TRANS system successfully predicted the track rotation, RI process and concentric eyewalls structure of Gaemi in the east side of Taiwan Island, and accurately captured the RI, concentric eyewalls formation and eye wall replacement process after Typhoon Yagi entered the South China Sea. This is the first time that a model can successfully predict the concentric eyewalls structure and the eyewall replacement process in real-time typhoon forecasting, which demonstrates the critical supporting role of the AI-TRANS system in improving the accuracy of typhoon intensity forecast and enhancing the capability of disaster mitigation.

     

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