气候变化和空气污染双赢应对战略的简要评述

A brief review of the win-win addressing strategy for climate change and air pollution

  • 摘要: 中国作为全球气候变化的敏感区和影响显著区,历史的观测和未来预估均表明,极端高温事件频发、强发、广发、并发将可能成为“新常态”;极端低温事件频次总体表现出减少趋势,但21世纪以来极端低温事件的强度、持续时间和综合危险性有反弹增加的趋势。毋庸置疑,人类活动导致了全球变暖,全球气候系统正经历着快速而广泛的变化。北极作为全球变暖响应的敏感区,通过“北极放大“效应影响着中高纬度环流,进而影响中纬度地区极端高温和低温事件的变化,同时也通过调制重污染气象条件进而影响冬季霾和夏季臭氧污染的发生。我国的大气污染物与二氧化碳等温室气体具有同根、同源、同过程的特点,近年来气候变化应对与环境治理已初步显现积极的协同效果;在“双碳”目标的引领下,未来随着中国能源结构的持续绿色低碳转型,碳排放与经济发展实现稳定脱钩,大气污染物和二氧化碳具有巨大的同步减排潜力,将实现空气质量持续改善与减缓气候变化的双赢。在这个双赢的框架下,呼吁气候变化影响下的高脆弱性部门之间形成更有效的联动,共同制定减缓气候变化的应对战略和措施,同时应针对北极与气候变化的双向作用开展更深入的科学研究和试验,为双赢应对战略的制定和实施提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: China is highly sensitive to and significantly impacted by global climate change. The analysis based on historical observations and future projections indicates that frequent, intense, extensive, and concurrent extreme high-temperature events are likely to become the New Normal. The frequency of extreme low-temperature events has shown a decreasing trend. However, since the 21st century, the intensity, duration and combined hazards of extreme low temperature events have rebounded. It is evidently confirmed that human activities have contributed to global warming, and the global climate system is undergoing rapid and widespread changes. The Arctic, as a sensitive area responding to climate warming, influences the changes of extreme high- and low-temperature events in the mid-latitudes through the 'Arctic amplification' effect. Additionally, it modulates the occurrence of winter haze and summer ozone pollution by affecting heavy pollution meteorological conditions. China’s atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, originate from the same emission sources and undergo similar processes. Consequently, in recent years, climate change governance and environmental pollution control have started to demonstrate positive synergistic effects. Guided by the goal of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality and with the further transformation of China's energy structure, carbon emissions and economic development are expected to achieve stable decoupling. This development holds great potential for simultaneous reduction of atmospheric pollutants and CO2 emissions, thereby fostering a win-win situation between continuous improvement of air quality and mitigation of climate change. Within this framework, there is an urgent need to establish more effective linkages between sectors highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. All sectors should collaboratively formulate adaptation strategies and measures to mitigate climate change. Furthermore, more in-depth scientific research and experiments are required on the interaction between the Arctic and climate change to provide scientific support for the formulation and implementation of win-win adaptation strategies.

     

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