认识大气环流和气候系统动力学100年进步

Progress of atmospheric circulation and climate system dynamics studies in China over the past 100 years

  • 摘要: 文中全面回顾了中国气象学界在过去一百年中,对大气环流和气候系统动力学领域的深刻理解和显著进步,综述了大气环流遥相关、季风环流、气候系统动力学、青藏高原动力学、古气候及非线性大气动力学等领域的研究成果。尽管力求详尽,但受限于主题范围、篇幅和能力,可能仍有遗漏,敬请谅解。 在大气环流遥相关方面,中国学者对大气环流的基本特征及其与气候变化的关系进行了深入研究,揭示了包括东亚-太平洋型、丝绸之路型等多种遥相关型的形成机制和影响。这些研究成果构成了北半球夏季环流异常的核心理论框架,不仅深化了对大气环流遥相关现象的理解,也为国际气候预测和研究提供了新的视角和工具,显著提升了大气环流变化的预测能力。季风环流研究方面,中国学者系统揭示了东亚季风的形成机制及其与热带三大洋(太平洋、印度洋、大西洋)之间的相互作用。通过深入分析季风年际和年代际变率的海气相互作用机理,显著提升了对季风系统变化规律的理解,中国主导的全球季风模式对比计划被纳入CMIP6框架,其成果为IPCC第六次评估报告提供了关键支撑。同时,对东亚季风指数的定义、历史变化检测归因以及未来预估进行了全面回顾,为季风气候的预测和应对提供了理论基础和技术支持,促进了全球季风研究的深入发展。气候系统动力学领域的研究涵盖了全球变暖动力学、大气层结变化、快速气候调整以及气候变率调整等多个方面。中国学者通过数值模拟实验和理论分析,深入探讨了全球变暖背景下的降水变化机制、大气环流调整以及气候反馈作用等关键问题。中国研发的气候系统模式在CMIP6中表现突出,相关结论被IPCC AR6直接引用,标志着中国模式在国际评估中的话语权显著提升。特别是针对东亚季风、北太平洋副热带高压等关键气候系统的研究,为中国乃至全球的气候预测和应对提供了有力支持。青藏高原作为地球上一个独特的地形单元,其对大气环流和气候系统的影响受到了广泛关注。中国学者通过大量观测和数值模拟实验,揭示了青藏高原对大气环流的动力和热力强迫作用。研究表明,青藏高原不仅改变了周边地区的大气环流结构,还对亚洲季风、区域气候乃至全球气候产生了深远影响,相关理论被国际学界认为是解释亚洲气候变率的核心机制之一。在古气候研究方面,中国学者利用丰富的历史文献和自然档案,重建了历史时期和地质时期的气候变化序列,揭示了气候变化的周期性、突变性和区域特征。这些研究成果不仅填补了中国古气候研究的空白,也为国际古气候研究提供了宝贵的资料和数据支持,推动了全球古气候研究的深入发展。在非线性大气动力学方面,中国学者在大气非线性波动方程、阻塞非线性动力学、可预报性等方面做出了重要贡献,提出了条件非线性最优扰动方法和非线性局部Lyapunov指数,成为世界气象组织推荐的可预报性分析工具。这些创新性的理论和方法不仅丰富了非线性大气动力学的理论体系,也为国际大气和海洋系统的可预报性研究提供了新的思路和技术支持,推动了该领域的国际前沿研究。 过去一百年,中国气象学界在认识大气环流和气候系统动力学方面取得了丰硕成果,为理解气候变化、提高气候预测能力做出了重要贡献。展望未来,中国气象学者将继续在这一领域深耕细作,不断开拓创新,为全球气象事业的进步贡献更多中国智慧和力量。

     

    Abstract: This paper comprehensively reviews profound understanding and significant advancements made by the Chinese meteorological community over the past century in the fields of atmospheric circulation and climate system dynamics. It summarizes research achievements in multiple areas, including atmospheric teleconnection, nonlinear atmospheric dynamics, monsoon circulation, Tibetan Plateau dynamics, climate system dynamics, and paleoclimate. Although we strive to be as comprehensive as possible, limitations in scope, length, and capability may lead to omissions, for which we appreciate your understanding. In the field of atmospheric teleconnection study, Chinese scholars have conducted in-depth research on fundamental characteristics of atmospheric circulation and its relationship with climate change. They have revealed the formation mechanisms and impacts of various teleconnection patterns, including the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) pattern and the Silk Road pattern (SRP). These findings have formed a core theoretical framework for understanding summer circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. They have not only deepened our understanding of atmospheric teleconnection phenomena but also provided new perspectives and tools for international climate prediction and research, significantly enhancing our ability to predict atmospheric circulation changes. Regarding monsoon circulation research, Chinese scholars have systematically revealed the formation mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon and its interactions with the three major tropical oceans (Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic). Through in-depth analyses of the air-sea interaction mechanisms governing interannual and interdecadal variability of the monsoon, they have significantly improved our understanding of monsoon system variations. The Global Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (GMMIP) led by China has been incorporated into the CMIP6 framework, and its findings have provided crucial support for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Furthermore, Chinese researchers have comprehensively reviewed the definition of the East Asian monsoon index, historical monsoon change detection and attribution, and its future projections. Their work provides a theoretical foundation and technical support for monsoon climate prediction and adaptation, thereby promoting the advancement of global monsoon research. The field of climate system dynamics encompasses various aspects such as global warming dynamics, atmospheric stratification changes, rapid climate adjustments, and climate variability adjustments. Through numerical simulations and theoretical analyses, Chinese scientists have explored key issues such as precipitation change mechanisms, atmospheric circulation adjustments, and climate feedback effects under the background of global warming. Climate system models developed in China have demonstrated outstanding performance in CMIP6 with relevant conclusions directly cited in the IPCC AR6, marking a significant rise in China's influence in international climate assessments. In particular, studies on key climate systems such as the East Asian monsoon and the North Pacific subtropical high have provided robust support for climate prediction and response strategies in China and beyond. As a unique topographic feature on Earth, the Tibetan plateau has a profound impact on atmospheric circulation and the climate system, drawing extensive attention. Through extensive observations and numerical simulations, Chinese meteorologists have revealed the plateau's dynamic and thermal forcing effects on atmospheric circulation. Studies have shown that the Tibetan plateau not only modifies the atmospheric circulation structures of surrounding regions but also exerts a far-reaching influence on the Asian monsoon, regional climate, and even global climate. Relevant theories have been recognized by the international academic community as key mechanisms explaining Asian climate variability. In the field of paleoclimate research, Chinese scholars have utilized extensive historical documents and natural archives to reconstruct climate change sequences over historical and geological periods, revealing periodicity, abrupt changes, and regional characteristics of climate variations. These research findings have not only filled gaps in China's paleoclimate study but also provided valuable materials and data support for international paleoclimate research, advancing global paleoclimate studies. In the field of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics, Chinese scientists have made important contributions to nonlinear wave equations in the atmosphere, nonlinear dynamics of blocking, and predictability. They proposed the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) method and the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent (NLLE), which have been recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as predictability analysis tools. These innovative theories and methods have not only enriched the theoretical framework of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics but also provided new insights and technical support for predictability studies of atmospheric and oceanic systems worldwide, pushing forward the international frontier of research in this field. In summary, over the past century, the Chinese meteorological community has made remarkable achievements in understanding atmospheric circulation and climate system dynamics, making important contributions to climate change comprehension and improving climate prediction capabilities. Looking ahead, Chinese meteorologists will continue to deepen their research, innovate persistently, and contribute more Chinese wisdom and strength to the advancement of global meteorological science.

     

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